(A response to Wolfgang Münchau @EuroBriefing’s A primer for Europeans in post-Brexit Britain and to Rob Ford, @robfordmancs,
Professor of Political Science at Manchester)
@Schroedinger99 sorry Mike but that's evidence free hyperventilation.— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) March 6, 2017
This all began with Professor Ford describing Wolfgang Münchau’s piece as “A very
useful corrective to the alarmist cobblers that has been filling the pages of
Guardian CiF on post-Brexit EU citizens' rights”.
So let’s examine the issue in a bit more depth.....
Wolfgang begins by noting that “The main issue for EU nationals in
the UK is not, in fact, whether the UK reaches a deal on the status of EU
residents”. He is right. Despite Home Secretary Amber Rudd’s insistence that the
plight of EU citizens here is the fault of “a
few EU countries insisting there can be no negotiation before notification”
the real source of the three-million’s problems are closer to home. As the
UK Home Office puts it: “EU nationals who have lived continuously and
lawfully in the UK for at least 5 years automatically have a permanent right to
reside” and it has been estimated that about 84% of EU citizens currently
living in the UK already meet this criterion or will have met it by the time we
leave.
The continued residency[i] of the 84% rests not on our negotiations with the EU,
but on the behaviour of the UK Home Office.
Wolfgang Münchau complains that his “most dreaded chore this year
will be to fill out an 85-page UK government application form” that he hopes
will give him “permanent residence in the UK after Brexit”. The good news for Wolfgang
is that a simplified online version of the form was made
available - several months ago in fact. The even better news for Wolfgang
is that, for people using the online form (but not for people using the 85 page
paper form) the requirement to list all trips abroad since originally entering
the UK – including entry and exit dates – has been quietly dropped.
Unfortunately, there is a lot of bad news, and some really bad
news…..
First of all it should be pointed out, pace Wolfgang’s complaints
about the length of the form, it is the need to provide reams of information
that most people simply won’t have kept, rather than the 85 pages that is the
real issue here. Another problem is that the form, both in its long and short
versions, is riddled with ambiguities and contradictions and other
than being advised to hire expensive lawyers, you will get little help with the
form from the Home Office. And yet another problem is that significant numbers of EU citizens are disbarred from using the online form and from using the local(ish) passport checking service. They have to surrender their passports for months on end.
Wolfgang continues:
The UK grants permanent residency to [employed and the self-employed] who [have] been resident for five years or more. They have the right to apply for formal permanent residency status, for which they need to fill out that 85-page form. They do not have to do this and are still deemed to be permanently resident if they do not fill in the form. There are, however, two reasons why they might choose to do so. The first is insurance against a retroactive change in rules. It has happened before. The second would be to become a UK citizen, for which formal permanent residency is a prerequisite.
This is all true (sort of) but ignores a crucial consideration.
Post Brexit, there are going to be two categories of EU citizens in the
UK: those who are allowed to continue living and working here and those who are
only allowed to visit for short periods as tourists. There is going to have to
be some way of distinguishing between these two groups so everyone in the first
category is going to have to be issued with Permanent Residency Documents.
In other words, three million people are,
sooner or later, going to have to fill in the
form; or at least a form. There
are few signs that the Home Office is geared up to process applications on this
scale; and they only have two years.
Among those who are currently applying
to the UK Home Office to try and beat the rush and get their situation in the
UK regularized prior to Brexit, about 34% are being turned down –
some then being ordered, for good measure, to pack up and leave the UK. It should be noted here that this is 34% of
people who think they have a good case and who have sufficient initiative to
fill in all the forms and assemble the reams of required evidence. I think we
can assume that, given current procedures, there will be a far higher rate of failed applications once everyone has to apply.
And now we come to a really crucial
issue: the reason for most of the failed applications.
It seems that about 12%
of applications are rejected because applicants have failed to fill in the forms
correctly or failed to provide all the bits of paper the Home Office insists on.
The
other 22% of applications are refused. There are no statistics on why these
applications are refused, but the main reason seems to be failure to provide proof
of “Comprehensive Medical Insurance”. People cannot provide proof of this because
they didn’t, and don’t, have it or need it. They use the NHS.
This all gets very complicated but,
as Wolfgang notes, correctly but misleadingly, “this is EU law”. In fact, according to the EU, the Home Office is in breach of this EU law when it
insists, retrospectively, that some categories of UK residents who have been
legally using NHS services all their lives require evidence of health insurance
before they can apply for residency. This is, however, exactly what the Home
Office is insisting. The Home Office will not even provide a definition of
what constitutes Comprehensive
Medical Insurance and EU
citizens who ask insurance companies for such a thing report bafflement and/or ridiculous
quotes for coverage.
But it
gets even worse….
The
latest change the Home Office has made in the
accompanying guidance for filling in the forms
contains a chilling new entry:
“Scenario 3: Colette, a Belgian citizen, came to the UK for a holiday in August 2003 but then remained without permission or entitlement under community law. Any residence in the UK after her entitlement under community law came to an end was residence in breach of the immigration laws.”
In other words, there
are many EU citizens exercising their right to free movement here in blissful
ignorance of the fact that our Home Office now considers their presence not
just unwelcome but unlawful. Residence in breach of the immigration laws can theoretically land you in prison.
Wolfgang states confidently that the
deportation of people in Collette’s situation "has not happened, and it will not happen". He is probably right but he displays
astonishing complacency.
As both foaming-at-the-gills
Brexiters like Jacob Rees-Mogg and liberal remain voters
like Professor
Ford are fond of chanting in unison “The idea that the Home Office will round up and deport three million
people is bonkers”. What they don’t seem to realize is that – as Professor
Jonathan Portes keeps shouting to anyone who will listen[ii]
immigration control is – especially for foreigners with visa-free travel to the
UK – increasingly conducted not by passport control but by employers. Landlords, banks, and hospital doctors seem destined to
take on more and more of this role too.
So, assuming there is no change of
heart or policy at the Home Office (a qualification that I apparently have
to keep emphasizing) hundreds of thousands of EU citizens resident in the UK - those
who never got around to filling in the forms, those without the required proof
of status, homemakers and students who “need” but can’t get or afford
comprehensive medical insurance, those whose applications are refused by the Home
Office etc – are increasingly going to find themselves with no continuing right
to work here or rent a house or open a bank account or receive medical
treatment or get back into the country if an official at LHR (correctly) refuses
to believe they are coming here as a tourist and they cannot furnish a residency permit.
There will be no mass round ups, just
a slow war of attrition over many years during which the lives of “low
value / high volume” EU migrants (to use Iain Duncan Smith’s charming turn
of phrase) are made difficult or impossible.
I suppose that many of the hundreds
of thousands working in the UK’s large black economy and the destitute may
simply carry on living here until they get caught. Below the radar, the UK is already interning and
deporting thousands of EU nationals it considers unfit to be here.
Negotiating with the EU is not
going to help any of those people. Even if the Home Office does have a change of
heart and starts trying to think of new ways to help rather than new ways to hinder
EU citizens, and vastly simplifies its procedures, is it then going to write to
all the people it has rejected apologizing and rescinding the rejections it has
issued under current rules? This seems fanciful.
This is our story: “EU
citizens in the UK are already facing Home Office threats”. My wife and I
will be fine. I refuse to be bullied by the Home Office and we are already
considering going to retire in Germany (if they’ll have me). I no longer feel at
home in the UK and my wife certainly doesn’t.
Tens (perhaps hundreds) of thousands
of other EU citizens are going to suffer a great deal more than we are and I
intend to keep hyperventilating on their behalf as long as I draw breath.
[i] Their
continued rights to pensions, healthcare, study, free travel etc are another
matter and will hinge more directly on what is agreed with the other 27 EU
countries.