NB This a rather rushed translation from a native English speaker (me) with a far from expert level command of German; and I have sometimes taken liberties with the translation to make the meaning clear. Any suggestions for corrections or improvements gratefully received. Since I did this, another translation (by @NinaDSchick - a German native speaker) has been published. It seems to agree - by and large - with mine.
No Gain Without Pain
Theresa May begged for help with the Brexit negotiations this week in Berlin, Paris, and Brussels. The Europeans were resolute but did their best to be pleasant.
Six months ago, Theresa May was at the height of her powers. She
had chosen a "hard Brexit, was lauding her "global Britain", had
initiated withdrawal from the European Union, and even called for new
elections. May wanted even more power. When
Jean-Claude Juncker joined her at the table in Downing Street and
poured lots of water into the wine, she closed her ears: “No bad news,
please!”. “She lives in another galaxy”, the President of the Commission concluded.
At the start of this week, May and Juncker met again for dinner — this
time in Brussels. Everything was rather different. The bravado had gone, May pleaded
for help. She spoke of the risks she had taken when she recently abandoned her
hard-Brexit line and asked for a transitional period of two years, during which
everything would remain the same. She reminded her audience that she had also given
ground on the delicate issue of money and revealed that her friends and her
enemies were hard on her heels, waiting for her to fall. She had no room for manoeuvre
and May said that the Europeans would have to create some for her.
Theresa May appeared anxious to the President of the Commission, dejected
and disheartened. A woman who hardly trusts anybody but feels trapped in her
situation. May’s facial expressions and her appearance spoke volumes. Juncker
described her to his colleagues later in the following terms: “Everyone can see
it. The Prime Minister is scarred by the struggles within her own party. She
has deep rings under her eyes. She looks as though she has not slept. Her
smiles are few and far between. She forces them for the photographers, but it her
inner torment shines through. In the past, May could literally heave with
laughter. her whole body would shake. Now she employs all her resources to
avoid losing her temper."
May asked Juncker for the appointment at the last
minute. Beforehand, she had telephoned Chancellor Merkel and French
President Macron. This was no “charm-offensive". These were calls for
help. May knew that the heads of state and government were not prepared to
grant "sufficient progress" in the negotiations at the end of the
week and would block the move towards the second phase of the negotiations — which is where
the UK’s future will be determined. The Prime Minister wanted at least to
pave the way for a shift: could the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier at
least be given a mandate for talks about the transitional phase after the UK’s
departure?
EU wants to
talk about money
For May this would have been a great success. It
would have softened the strict negotiating plan and it could have assuaged some
of the concerns of UK business-people. They become more nervous with every
passing day as the UK heads towards a chaotic, uncontrolled exit. Several
banks have already begun to put their emergency plans into action, rent offices in
Frankfurt or Paris, and relocate parts of their businesses. Others are
preparing for this. In business, no one can rely on hopes or wishes. As
a general rule, once jobs and production sites have moved away from somewhere,
they never return. Moving twice is not worth the effort and expense.
Europeans are very much aware of the pickle in which
the British find themselves. This fact provides
the EU with its biggest leverage in the negotiations. That is why Merkel, Macron and Juncker could not soften their stance. All three
insisted on further progress, especially on the sensitive issue of money,
before there could be direct talks about the future.They did not wish the United Kingdom and Gibraltar to hold a referendum on
membership of the European Union and they cannot solve the Brits’ problems for
them. The German Chancellery is not prepared to use its coffers to help Britain
out and May received the same message from Paris and Brussels. The Europeans had
voted.
Nevertheless, nobody wished to make it appear as
though they had simply snubbed the Prime
Minister. Merkel, Macron and Juncker know exactly how delicate her
situation is. They also recognize that May no longer harbours her former
illusions about the effects of the Brexit. He initial threat that "no
deal is better than a bad deal" no longer plays a role in the negotiations. Macron
has pointed this out publicly and this has been confirmed by Berlin. In
her Florence speech May took a very different line and acknowledged how bad it
would be for the British economy if the country were in the single market one
day, and catapulted out of it the next. Her Foreign Minister Boris
Johnson has a very
different line. He still assures the British people that they have a
"great future", even without a deal. Better to negotiate with the
realist May than with the fantasist Johnson, is thus the thinking on the
continent. That was why the EU pulled its punches.
The photographs from the meeting are deceptive
Juncker said good-bye to May after supper. He can
do this kind of thing like no nobody esle. The communiqué spoke of a
"constructive and friendly atmosphere". Yes, the efforts should
even be "accelerated". That's how May’s people were able sell the
meeting to their media as “a success”, for half a day — until chief negotiator
Barnier soberly pointed out that accelerated two-party negotiations require both parties to
speed up.
When the Angela Merkel arrived at the European
Council on Thursday, she also made a few friendly noises. Progress in the
negotiations is not yet "sufficient" but "encouraging enough for
efforts to continue in order that the second phase might be achieved in
December". Merkel and Macron then entered the meeting hall together -
May just behind and partly between them. All three were in excited
conversation. These were the pictures of the day. Nobody could see that
they were not talking about Brexit, but about the nuclear deal with Iran.
As
for the political results of the Brexit negotiations, May's last-minute
diplomacy did not change anything. These matters had been voted on among
the EU ambassadors a week before the Summit: The EU27 Governments and the
Barnier team are to undertake "internal preparatory discussions" on
future relations with London and a transitional phase. This was a positive
response to May’s Florence speech. It is explained in negotiating circles
that, without such preparation, it would not be possible to enter into the
second phase anyway. Guidelines have to be drawn up again. The negotiators
firmly believe that their papers are public knowledge anyway and have even said
that their opposite numbers in London are already aware of the exact position
of the EU27 governments before they sit down to negotiate.
Notable progress has been made in the divorce
negotiations so far only on the rights of the four million citizens who will be
directly affected by the withdrawal - because they live on the
"other" side. London privately admits has already conceded eighty
percent of the demands made by the EU27. The biggest issue still has to be
cleared in the coming weeks: The British negotiators are now openly accepting
that the European Court of Justice will have a role in deciding post-Brexit
disputes.
Finances were taboo
On the other hand, the subject of Northern
Ireland is very complicated. It is true that both sides agree that there
should be no "hard land border" on the island of Ireland, but they
have very different solutions. Which one is chooses depends on future
relations between the UK and the EU. That is why the Northern Ireland issue
is in the process of being moved to the second phase of the negotiations.
The real hurdle is money. The remaining 27
States require the United Kingdom to honour all the financial commitments it made
as a member. According to calculations by the EU Commission, this is well
over sixty billion net. The Council, as an institution of the Member
States, calculates it to be ninety billion euro. The difference is related
to other items and cost estimates. Somewhere between the two numbers lies
the place where London must end up.
At first the British government did not even want
to discuss this. Finances were taboo. Then May made two commitments in
Florence:
Firstly, she said that her country would continue
to contribute to the EU budget until the end of 2020, even after leaving the
country in March 2019. This equates to a good twenty billion euros net.
Curiously, she thereby conceded one of the weakest arguments used by the
Europeans in calculating the UK’s divorce bill. The amount in question was only
arrived at in the context of medium-term financial planning and was not a
formal budgetary decision. May, however, was being tactical. This is a sum she
finds easiest to sell politically. If her country is to remain in the single
market for another two years after Brexit it would have to pay this sum anyway.
Secondly, May made a simple statement: " The UK will honour commitments we have made
during the period of our membership." From the European point of view of,
that was good. But what does it mean exactly? What obligations? From
an EU perspective, it is a question of: unpaid bills (31 billion euros), future
pension burdens (9 billion), special funds (4 billion), and the assumption of
liability risks. Nobody wants London to specify concrete numbers. The
bill would only be presented at the time of exiting the EU and may be revised
many times before then. However, May had to agree, in principle, to the
individual items.
The clock is ticking
She is still frightened of making any such commitment.
Of course the Brexit hardliners and the media will scream at the Tories - they
wanted to get out of the European Union because of the British net financial contributions.
Johnson, perhaps also Brexit's minister David Davis, could then land a lethal
blow. Nevertheless, Europe's politicians do not want to give in here, and Berlin
and Paris cannot give in because they are the biggest net contributors. This
would be a super bail-out for Britain.
As chief negotiator Barnier reminds us at every
opportunity, the clock is ticking. The next EU summit will take place in
mid-December. In Brussels, a highly experienced politician has formulated May’s
challenge for the next few weeks: She must explain to her side why the costs of
a chaotic Brexit would be much higher than any bill presented by Brussels. And
how will that work? From now on, any bad news will be good for Brexit,
says the politician. For the gloomier the prospects of crashing out of
talks without a deal are, the more likely it is that the UK will open its wallet
and make a deal.
So maybe it was not such a bad week for the Prime
Minister after all. Her Treasury reported a 3% inflation rate. Prices are
rising. A research institute estimated that ordinary families will have
300 euros a year less if trade with the continent has to go through customs controls. And
the OECD, the club of the industrialized countries, recommended that the Brexit
should preferably be abandoned altogether but, at least, the UK should maintain
as "close" a relationship as possible with the EU.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Comments are moderated, but you can leave them without registering.